The Chip Stock Trader

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Chip Stock Trader
33 Moffett Ct.
Novato, CA 94949

Objective

Net annual returns of 35% or more in solar, semiconductor, and emerging technology (IPO) stocks. Modest annual returns (12 to 25%) for two index funds.

Our Viewpoint

  • Rapid swings in sentiment and short-term trends dominate the technology sector, particularly solar and semiconductor (chip) stocks. 

  • Solar stocks are subject to abrupt swings in valuation based on news, company revenue projections, contracts, government policies (tax credits, tariff pass-through rates), and perceived demand for their services. Solar stocks are technology leaders in the rapidly emerging alternative energy (AE) sector.

  • Liquidity in semiconductor stocks (demand) is primarily driven by investors' perception of the timing and maturity of the underlying semiconductor cycle. Being on the right side of those perceptions - and at the right time - is the key to trading the stocks successfully.

  • See Strategy for comments on the Enhanced SPX and Ultra Index Investor

Stock Portfolio

 2008 YTD (June 5)

  • + 19.4%

Since Inception (April 2, 2005)

  • +275%

Ultra Index Investor

2008 YTD (June 5)

  • - 4%

Since Inception (Jan 1, 2006)

  • +60%

Enhanced SPX Fund

2008 YTD (June 5)

  • +4.62 %

Since Jan 1, 1992

  • +12.41% CAGR

 

The Chip Stock Trader

  • Capitalizes on cyclic movements in the technology sector.

  • We initiate positions when the strategic odds for investing are in our favor: when a turn in the sector is imminent, when traditional support levels, trend lines, etc. indicate an entry or an exit, and when our research sees value in a stock.  

  • We try to be bullish when it is time to be bullish, and bearish when it is time to be bearish, and to know the difference.

  • "Times of great uncertainty present the greatest opportunity to purchase stocks below their intrinsic value. This pattern has repeated itself so many times we believe it to be axiomatic." (Arnold Van Den Berg, Century Management, Dallas, TX) Therefore it's not uncommon for our positions to have a drawdown before they turn profitable, and at times, to disappoint us. But we buy when almost no one is buying and sell when an appreciable advance has been made. We seek absolute returns in an actively traded portfolio. Our results prove that technology can be a profitable investment if one is willing to follow product cycles dispassionately and trade accordingly.

 

 

 

 

Chip Stock Trader does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any data published in this newsletter, nor does Chip Stock Trader assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions as expressed in this newsletter. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. Investing in stocks, options, index funds, sector funds, Exchange Traded funds (ETF) and Holdrs should be considered speculative and risky. Anyone trading securities should also do so with caution, and with the help of a licensed broker. None of our publishers are brokers and none are offering securities for sale. The information contained in this report may not be published. broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior consent from Chip Stock Trader, 33 Moffett Ct, Novato, CA 94949.

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